Sushi in Utah Finals Preview

Resident Hockey Tolerator Brian

I like most of the teams in the playoffs (and the league for that matter), but I don’t like the Miami Heat. I can honestly say that the only reason this is the case is because a team with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh are always going to SEEM like favorites to me, and there is no visceral appeal to rooting for favorites. Individually there is not one Heat player I have a problem with, and I have genuine sympathy for the shit LeBron in particular has to go through, but I can still never root for them.

What’s interesting about this series is that by most accounts, the Heat are coming in as genuine underdogs, and rightfully so. The OKC Thunder have beaten better competition and in a more convincing fashion. LeBron is probably a little better than Durant, and Wade is probably a little better than Westbrook, but James Harden is definitely better than a broken Bosh (if Bosh was healthy, it would be a wash for the Heat AT BEST). Past that, Ibaka is about twice as good as the Heat’s fourth best player (probably Chalmers), and to a man, the Thunder role players are pretty much all more consistently useful than the Heat’s (at everything besides dap giving, at which Ronny Turiaf is king).

The good news for the Heat is that the Thunder are not really constructed to exploit the Heat’s weaknesses. Miami has without a doubt the best perimeter defense in the league, but the true post presences on this team are borderline D-League players. Luckily, the Thunder can only counter with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. Perk has negative offensive game, and Ibaka is more athletic than deft, getting most of his points off dunks. Occasionally Ibaka can get the jumper going, but if that happens Miami has no shot anyway. The Thunder have two combo guards who get most of the PT in the backcourt, and while both can create to some extent, neither is the Rondo-type (or entire Spurs team) ideal for breaking down the Heat defense. Theoretically LeBron can slow down Durant and some combination of Wade/Battier/Chalmers can take turns harassing Westbrook and Harden. If that happens, the Thunder won’t have anyone else who can create.

On the other hand, the Thunder have their own advantages for the same reasons.Since Miami’s offense operates most effectively with Bosh spreading the floor and knocking down open 18-footers With no one to guard in the post, Ibaka, who is by far the best shot blocker in the league, will have the freedom to roam around and do whatever the hell he wants. I wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged five blocks per game this series (averaged almost four in the regular season, so that’s pretty reasonable). I expect Durant to spend a good deal of time at the 4, allowing the Thunder to get both Harden and Thabo Sefolosha on the floor for large stretches of time. Sefolosha is pretty toothless on offense outside of the occasional trey, but he’s a very good defender who will be called upon to handle both LeBron and Wade at times. While LeBron is almost certainly going to have to spend the entire series guarding Durant, I think Durant is going to end up guarding Bosh, or even Battier for most of the time. This is going to save him a lot of energy, and he already has had more rest during the playoffs than his superstar counterparts. The Thunder aren’t quite the defensive team the Heat are, but they have better matchups and have rim protection that the Heat can’t match. The role players are really going to have to be hitting their open jumpers when Wade or LeBron meet Ibaka or Perkins at the rim and have to kick it out. Non-Bosh’s have not shown the ability to do this consistently to this point.

No matter what happens, this series is going to be fun as hell. I was rooting against the Heat the whole way, but I’m glad they’re here (if that makes sense?). This is the most fun possible finals  matchup outside of Spurs vs. Spurs. In my lifetime there has never been this much athleticism on the court, and all the stars in this series give 143% while playing at 476 mph. It’s gonna be a largely center-less small ball series, the likes of which we’ve never seen before. We’re probably gonna see back-to-back cool shit that doesn’t seem possible, about 392584037285 bullshit narratives are gonna form and die between games quarters, and my head is probably gonna explode midway through Game 2.

I have a really bad feeling about this prediction, but I don’t see a way around saying anything other than Thunder in 5. Although the Thunder don’t have the bigs to kill the Heat, on paper nothing seems to FAVOR them besides the fact that LeBron is the best player. The Heat are already tired and bruised, and now they have to take on the most healthy, energetic team in the league. OKC has home-court advantage in more ways than one, because their fans are the best in the league while Miami’s are arguably the worst. No one is going to completely stop the two best players on either team, but a good game from any one of the Thunder role players probably means the Thunder are gonna win that particular game. For the Heat to win, their big three are going to have to trump the Thunder’s AND compensate for OKC’s other advantages–I just don’t see that happening.

Resident Heat Norris Cole Expert Jesse Tzeng

By all accounts, the Thunder should win. Popular opinion is that Kevin Durant is at least as good as LeBron, Dwyane Wade isn’t the man he once was, Russell Westbrook is playing at a high level, and Chris Bosh is hobbled at best. Popular opinion is that Miami fades in big moments, that Oklahoma can be propelled to victory on its home floor by the crowd alone, and that Miami gets nothing at home.

And that’s exactly why I think the Heat are going to win this series.

Last year, the Heat were the favorites to win, and they buckled under the pressure. This year, they are the underdogs. Now, let’s look at what has happened so far every time the Heat have been perceived as the underdogs: Round 2 – Bosh goes down, Heat win out to take the series after falling into a 2-1 hole. Conference Finals – Bosh-less Heat manage to win a few games early, then hold out till he comes back. Backs to the wall, playing from behind in Game 7, Shane Battier and Chris Bosh catch fire from 3.

To say that the Heat buckle in big moments is only half accurate: the Heat buckle when they think the deal is done. Last year against the Mavs, they never played with any sense of urgency. I fully believe that, this year, they already feel that urgency. With the world against them (again), the Heat should play like they did at the start of this season, the playoffs last year, and the middle stretch of last season.

Psychology aside, this match-up really is not that bad for the Heat. Had they drawn the Spurs, the Heat would also have been quartered shortly afterwards. The Thunder present far fewer match-up problems. Kevin Durant will be guarded by LeBron James, who is very possibly the best perimeter defender in the league (in addition to the MVP). Much has been made of how greatly Kevin Durant responds to challenges, but he also seems to fail against physical defense; hopefully, Coach Spoelstra can understand that. Even just denying Durant the ball will probably make a substantial difference in the flow of the Thunder’s offense, as Westbrook (rightfully) looks to score himself when Durant looks denied.

Speaking of Russell Westbrook, he will almost certainly be guarded by Dwyane Wade. Westbrook usually makes a living off either by blowing past his man with his superior athleticism and speed (unlikely to happen) or by coming around off-ball screens (very likely). Unfortunately for the Heat, Wade has always been at his best as an on-ball defender, so Westbrook is likely to score a lot off those screens.

With Chris Bosh still slightly hobbled and Serge Ibaka perfectly healthy, it seems unlikely that we will see Bosh use the low post much in this series. Easy baskets around the hoop aren’t going to be created by the bigs for either team, but will be especially lacking for the Heat, who seem to be low-post challenged even when Bosh is healthy. Ibaka could prove to be the Thunder’s undoing, actually: his love of the block will free Bosh for as many elbow jumpers as he can take.

The real X-factor here is going to be James Harden. The Heat will always have either Wade or LeBron defending him when he is on the court (unless both Westbrook and Durant are out there too). Even so, Harden plays a much more diverse game than either Durant or Westbrook and should find ways to help his team even when he’s not scoring. If the Heat run anyone who isn’t Wade or James against Harden, they should expect some one-man 10-0 runs against them.

Now, people have been talking about how much deeper the Thunder are than the Heat. If you ask me, both benches (other than Harden) are pretty mediocre. The Heat should honestly have a bench of perfect role players, but Spoelstra just doesn’t seem to be able to get what the team needs from his non-stars (someone should really look into that). The Thunder, on the other hand, have a bench starring Derek Fisher, who also appears to get fourth quarter minutes. Let’s all get out our ooooooohs and aaaaaaahs now. Honestly, neither of these teams has more than 5, maybe 6 reliable players.

Taking all of these things into account, the series should really be quite even, but I believe that the noise of the media will finally push the Heat in the direction they want to go (and away from what everyone else is screaming). Maybe after this season, we can all stop wondering how good LeBron really is and just talk about how good he is.

Heat in 6.

It’s time.

King of Too Many Tennis References Sam

League Pass junkies and Guy in Peoria Who Watches Dunks on Sportscenter don’t agree on many things, but they do here: this is what we wanted.

We’ve sat through a lockout-shortened and narratively fractured season, and a frenetic and alternatingly wild and eye-gougingly plodding conference playoffs. After a ludicrous series of plot twists that somehow involved Elton Brand and JaVale fucking McGee comes the Finals that everyone penciled in as soon as Dirk Nowitzki bailed for the locker room last June. And put all the Derrick Rose-shaped asterisks on this you want, but this is as satisfying a final boss fight as you’ll ever find in sports, the last six years of men’s tennis aside.

Even though you’ll have to wade through miles of manufactured storylines and backlash and contrarianism toward the backlash and general Baylessian bullshit to get here, this is a series that’s too good to be bogged down all that. In terms of pure Xs-and-Orgasms, it’s hard to beat the 2012 San Antonio Spurs. But those guys played as close to the Platonic ideal of team basketball as twelve dudes can play. When they were on, it was just no fun for the other team. (cf. Western Conference Finals games 1 and 2) And when they weren’t? It just made you sad that they were forced to play on a human level when they’d been so much more. (cf. the other games) It’s the same sort of transcendence thwarted that makes Federer losses so tough to stomach. This is different. This is a bunch of amazing basketball players throwing haymakers at each other.

But now is not the time to eulogize the Spurs. Because Russell Westbrook isn’t gonna transcend SHIT, at this time.

The funnest sort of basketball series is the kind where neither team can really stop the other one. And whatever you can say about one team in these Finals, there’s a plausible trump on the other side. The Thunder have most of the guns in this series, but Dwyane Wade is one they don’t have, and although he’s been scuffling a bit, this is still Dwyane Wade, and he flashed (or Flashed) signs of brilliance down the stretch against the Celtics. He’ll have to contend with pharaonic James Harden and Westbrookian Russell Westbrook on the other end, both of whom are pretty unguardable when they’re going. Westbrook has been going, erupting at the right time, working the midrange game and most importantly taking care of the ball while still delivering indelibly Westbrook moments. And if Wade checks Westbrook, Harden will be free to loose his stepbacks and rumbles to the rim upon the world, or at least a hapless Shane Battier.

Which brings us to the feature presentation: LeBron James is, of course, LeBron James, and after the last two games of the East finals, he might have finally become something more even more lethal than the LeBron we’ve taken too much for granted. On the other hand, when the Thunder are at home, Kevin Durant’s arms reach Tulsa, and this year he’s defended LeBron as ably as one can do that these days. LeBron is one of the three or four best defensive players alive, but Kevin Durant has been unsolvable for this league since 2010. He’s lit up the Heat over their last four meetings to the tune of an efficient 30 a game, but in their most recent contest he coughed up the ball nine times. So, you know, probably do less of that.

Turnovers will be critical: the Thunder are the most dangerous transition team in the league,  but anyone would have second thoughts about running when Wade and LeBron are throwing full-court oops on the other team. Serge Ibaka is the anchor of a pretty good Thunder defense that stopped the Spurs just enough to win, but he’s biting on a Chris Bosh pump fake as we speak. OKC’s been unstoppable this postseason, but Miami’s defense is streets ahead of anything they’ve had to face. On the flip side, the Knicks, Pacers, and Celtics didn’t challenge Miami’s defense nearly to the degree that Durant and co. will, and if they don’t cut down on the puzzling defensive lapses that plagued them throughout their run this year, the Heat are staring down the barrels of three very loaded guns.

For the sake of completeness, the two teams’ respective bench situations should probably be discussed, although to be quite frank this is the fucking NBA finals and nobody cares about Dexter Pittman or Daequan Cook. Look: Nick Collison will draw a bunch of charges and hit a couple of long twos. Derek Fisher will infuriate everyone by winning a game with “clutch” shots necessitated by the fact that Derek Fisher played in an NBA finals game. Mario Chalmers will torch Derek Fisher a couple of times, and also do things that get him in trouble with Wade. Thabo Sefolosha will do yeoman’s work on defense and shoot threes over the Heat’s spot-up defense, which will be a lot better than the Spurs’ sometimes pathetic shot challenges. Kendrick Perkins will attempt one hilarious post “move” per game. The Heat’s bench “shooters,” such that they are, have to make shots. Basketball’s not so complicated, sometimes.

Also, Kendrick Perkins and his stupid goatee contra Ronny Turiaf and his first downs and dancing. Thank goodness we get THAT for (hopefully more than) twenty-eight quarters.

So basically, no one has any idea what’s about to happen, and if they say they do, they are self-deluded or lying. But strictures and conventions of sportswriting, and all that. The Thunder are undefeated at home this postseason, and it’s not a soft undefeated either, with an average margin of 10+ points a game. They also have home court. So Heat in seven, because logic can suck it.

Guest Boss Master Expert Mayank

I like Thunder. They have good mans and nice color. They play DooDoo jump.